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Rapid progress in cultivated meat

Cultivated meat is expected to reach price parity with conventional meat sooner than previously forecast, according to a new analysis by technology foresight specialist GetFocus.

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The newly released study finds that the performance of bioreactors used in the production of meat alternatives doubles approximately every 3.6 years. China is leading in technology development, holding four of the top five patent positions in the key technologies for cultivated meat. One of these patent holders is a US-based company.

A report published in April by the US National Security Commission on Biotechnology warns that the US must invest at least US$15bn in biotechnology by 2031. This is seen as necessary to prevent China from establishing long-term dominance in pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial biotechnology.

Previous studies have shown that price and taste are the most significant factors influencing consumer choice between conventional and alternative meat. GetFocus notes that concerns related to taste and health—such as issues with ultra-processing and nutrient profiles—have contributed to declining sales of plant-based meat products.

In contrast, cell-based production methods offer the potential to deliver alternatives that more closely resemble conventional meat. This could address key shortcomings of animal farming, including capacity constraints in the face of global population growth, the use of antibiotics, animal diseases, and poor nutritional value, such as high cholesterol.

However, several technical hurdles remain before cultivated meat products are market-ready, defined as reaching Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 8 or 9 out of 9. Stirred-tank bioreactors (TRL 8), serum-free culture media (TRL 7), and quality control systems (TRL 8) are close to commercial viability. But according to GetFocus, significant development is still required in areas such as whole-cut meat and integrated bioreactors, currently at TRL 4–5.

The food sector presents new commercial opportunities for biotechnology. It is approximately ten times larger than the pharmaceutical market, where biotechnology is already well established.

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