Eli Lilly-Abivax €15 billion takeover rumor stirs markets, but no formal steps confirmed

The rumour first surfaced in December when La Lettre had already reported that an Eli Lilly delegation had contacted la Direction générale du Trésor, France’s Treasury department responsible for foreign-investment screening, to inquire about the approval process for a potential acquisition of Abivax. Yesterday, the French business newsletter added context to the rumor, reporting that Eli Lilly was prepared to pay €15 billion ($17.5 billion) for Abivax.

Shortly after the rumor spread, the French finance ministry told Reuters it had received no formal request for foreign-investment approval and had had no contact with Lilly about Abivax, casting doubt on whether any bid has actually been launched.

The French finance ministry’s statement does not necessarily contradict the existence of interest. Saying that no foreign-investment approval request has been filed simply confirms that no transaction has reached the point where regulatory review would be triggered, not that discussions or preparatory work are impossible.

The €15 billion ($17.5 billion) figure circulating in the press should also be treated cautiously. Without a filed offer or disclosed negotiations, such numbers function more as valuation reference points than as evidence. French market commentators have largely framed the situation in those terms, stressing the absence of concrete steps.

Indeed, for now, there are no clear factual elements confirming that a transaction is underway; no filing, no confirmation, and no visible escalation beyond media reporting. Whether that changes will depend on signals that have yet to appear, such as direct company statements, adviser involvement becoming public, or a formal regulatory process being opened.

While the French finance ministry did not confirm or deny Eli Lilly’s interest in the French company, it did address the necessity of a foreign investment screening procedure if the intent was confirmed. It said it had no knowledge of, and was not in contact with Eli Lilly, adding that any acquisition of a strategic pharmaceutical company by a foreign buyer would be subject to France’s foreign-investment screening procedure (so-called “procédure de contrôle des investissements étrangers en France”).

Rumor sparks speculation around Abivax after its strong year

The interest has sparked fresh speculation and gains in Abivax’s share price on Paris’s Euronext exchange. Indeed, Abivax’s share price opened 17,5% up yesterday at €120 ($140) a share compared to €99 ($115) on January 9. The same day, the tone shifted once the French finance ministry weighed in, to go back to €104 ($121) per share a couple of hours following the statement

At the same time, Abivax was already in a strong position coming into 2026. The company had a standout 2025 on the back of positive phase 3 induction results for its ulcerative colitis candidate, obefazimod, which made its shares jump 500%. Reuters had already noted in December that takeover chatter alone was enough to lift the shares more than 20%.

Analysts see obefazimod targeting a large ulcerative colitis market, where effective oral therapies can support multi-billion-dollar annual sales. Following the phase 3 induction data, several analysts pointed to peak sales potential above $2 billion, particularly if the drug expands into Crohn’s disease.

What would change the picture is a concrete next step. That could be a formal approach from either company or the opening of a foreign-investment screening process in France. Until then, the situation is likely to remain driven by speculation layered on top of Abivax’s strong recent performance. 

Eli Lilly’s CEO, David A. Ricks, is taking part in a fireside chat at JPM today at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time (11:15 p.m. CET), where the Abivax rumor is likely to come up, even if any comment remains uncertain.