AI identifies most effective climate policies
A brand-new AI analysis of 1,500 climate policies across 41 countries between 1998 and 2022 reveals that only 4% achieved significant emission reductions.
A new machine learning analysis of climate policies – concerning electricity (see Sweden for huge emission reduction), transport (Hungary), buildings (Denmark), and industry (France) – developed by Annika Stechemesser at Potsdam Institute of Climate Research has identified 1,437 ineffective out of 1,500 implemented climate policies over the last two decades. The authors have published an interactive dashboard that clearly demonstrates that combination of policies such as a carbon tax plus the introduction of energy efficiency labels in the energy market were more successful than single measures. The tools provides a valuable tool for policymakers that like to learn how to achieve larger reductions in CHG emissions – that is 10-25% reduction of CO2 emissions over 2-3 years.
“Our results provide a clear yet sobering perspective on the policy effort necessary for closing the remaining emissions gap of 23 billion tons carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2023,” conclude the authors. To achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate targets, it is essential to know which climate policies work effectively at scale.
Annika Stechemesser and colleagues used data from the climate policy database from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). They also used a machine learning-based extension of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) approach – a statistical technique used to estimate the causal effect of an intervention (such as a climate policy) by comparing changes in outcomes over time between a group exposed to the intervention and a group that is not.
Stechemesser et al. evaluated the impact of each policy on emissions across different regions and time periods. Out of the 1,500 climate policies, the authors identified only 63 policy interventions that reduced total emissions between 0.6 billion and 1.8 billion tons of CO2. Effective policies typically involve a mix of subsidies and regulations that address different market failures. Pricing mechanisms excel in industry and electricity sectors, while a combination of incentives and regulations benefits buildings and transportation. In developing countries, pricing was less effective, indicating that initial regulatory and subsidy measures might be necessary.
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